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At COP29, nearly 200 countries are negotiating a new climate finance goal, potentially reaching up to $2 trillion annually, as developed nations signal reliance on private sector funding amid their own budget constraints. Developing countries, however, advocate for publicly financed grants, expressing skepticism about the feasibility of mobilizing private finance without direct control over these funds. The ongoing distrust stems from past unmet commitments, raising concerns about the credibility of future pledges and the role of multilateral development banks, which face capital restrictions and competing priorities.
The leaders of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund announced their commitment to collaborate with the incoming U.S. administration under Republican Donald Trump. Their focus will be on continuing financial support for developing countries affected by climate change.
At COP29 in Azerbaijan, major multilateral development banks pledged to raise $120 billion annually in climate finance for developing nations by 2030, a significant increase from previous years. This effort aims to support poorer countries in reducing emissions and adapting to climate impacts, although it falls short of the trillions needed. MDBs emphasize that their ability to scale up finance relies on increased contributions from their country shareholders and facilitating private sector investment.
The World Bank's President, Ajay Banga, stated that Donald Trump's re-election will not derail the institution's climate targets, emphasizing the importance of actions over words. The bank is on track to meet its goal of allocating 45% of its financing for climate initiatives by 2025, up from 35%. Additionally, it has expanded its debt relief program for small island nations affected by climate-related disasters and plans to launch a Frontier Opportunities Fund to attract investments in climate change loans.
India’s offshore rupee bond market is experiencing a significant resurgence, with issuers like the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank contributing to record annual volumes. This year, over 420 billion rupees ($5 billion) in offshore rupee bonds have been purchased, nearly doubling last year's figures and surpassing the previous record set in 2017, according to data from Bloomberg.
Donald Trump's election poses a significant threat to global climate diplomacy, potentially undermining trust in international cooperation as COP29 approaches. His anticipated withdrawal from the Paris Agreement could diminish US contributions to climate finance, complicating negotiations and pressuring other nations to adjust their commitments. With key EU leaders absent from the summit, the effectiveness of climate action may hinge on the ability of other countries to fill the void left by the US.
Global commodity prices are projected to decline, driven primarily by increased energy production, particularly crude oil, from countries like Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and the US. The World Bank forecasts a 3% drop in the Commodity Price Index for 2024, followed by further declines of 5% in 2025 and 2% in 2026, marking the lowest levels since 2020.
Nations have established the "Cali Fund" to ensure companies sharing profits from genetic resources contribute to biodiversity preservation, targeting firms with significant revenues. However, the voluntary nature of contributions raises concerns about the impact on rapid vaccine development and access to genetic data, particularly amid ongoing pandemic negotiations. Critics warn that new regulations could hinder medical research, emphasizing the need for seamless access to digital sequence information for effective health responses.
Concerns about U.S. fiscal policy under potential leadership changes are heightening uncertainty for Brazil's economic outlook. Analysts warn that without significant fiscal adjustments, inflation pressures may persist, leading to higher interest rates and a challenging environment for Brazilian assets. The expectation is for the Selic rate to remain elevated, with discussions of cuts unlikely in 2025 if current fiscal disarray continues.
India is currently the fastest growing major economy and is poised to become the third largest economy soon, according to President Droupadi Murmu. She highlighted the resilience of the Indian economy amid geopolitical challenges, projecting a tenfold growth by 2047. In 2023, India contributed 16 percent to global economic growth, as per the latest World Bank estimates.

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